Lower inflation in September reinforces slowdown trend

Brasil de Fato

The September inflation preview in Brazil reinforced the slowdown trend of price hikes in Brazil. The Broad Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15, in Portuguese) stood at 0.13% this month, down from the 0.19% recorded in August and less than half the 0.35% seen in September last year.

In August, inflation had already been negative, suggesting falling prices.

The IPCA-15 was released on Wednesday (25) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, in Portuguese). It is measured using the same methodology as the IPCA, the country’s official monthly inflation index, but between the second half of one month and the first half of the next.

In September, the IPCA-15 was measured based on prices collected between August 15 and September 13, 2024.

In the period above mentioned, food and drink prices rose by 0.05%. There was, however, a 0.01% drop in the costs of eating at home, due to the reduction in the price of onions (-21.88%), English potatoes (-13.45%) and tomatoes (-10.70%). Papaya (30.02%), bananas (7.29%) and ground coffee (3.32%) rose.

The increase in electricity pressured housing items prices up: it rose by 0.50% between mid-August and early September because residential electricity bills rose by 0.84% in the period, with the red tariff flag level 1 in force from the first day of this month.

Regarding transportation, prices fell by 0.08%. It was influenced by a drop in gasoline (-0.66%) and ethanol prices (-1.22%).

In the year, IPCA-15 accumulated a rise of 3.15%. In the last 12 months, the rate was 4.12%, below the 4.35% seen in the previous 12 months.

The fall in the 12-month accumulated figure reinforces the possibility of inflation closing the year at 4.5% stipulated by the government. Even with a favorable scenario for meeting the target, fears that this might not happen justified the decision of the Brazilian Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom, in Portuguese) to raise the economy’s basic interest rate last week.

After two years without an increase, the SELIC rate rose in September from 10.5% to 10.75% per year. Following this decision, the Copom indicated that there will probably be further increases soon.