With fierce election result in São Paulo, leftist candidate Boulos needs to show he is the name of change, says political scientist

Brasil de Fato

After a tight race for the mayoralty of Brazil’s largest city, candidates Ricardo Nunes (Brazilian Democratic Movement) and Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Freedom Party) will contest the second round. The current mayor of São Paulo and the leftist federal deputy got the better of the far-right candidate Pablo Marçal (Brazilian Renewal Labor Party), who emerged in the polls as a strong candidate for the second round of the local elections.

The polls confirmed the narrow margin of votes in the electoral race in São Paulo. Nunes won 29.48% of the votes, followed by Boulos (29.07%) and Marçal (28.14%).

Political scientist Tathiana Chicarino says the result of the first round can perhaps be explained by the number of undecided voters that the polls indicated or by the events on the eve of the election. Chicarino coordinates one of the courses at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation (FESPSP, in Portuguese).

Last Friday (4), Marçal published a fake medical report on his social media accounts in an attempt to harm his opponent Boulos. His profile was suspended by the Electoral Court.

“It’s hard to say what had an impact, considering how close it [the suspension] was [from the day of the voting]. We can imagine that, yes, some people who might have been considering voting for Nunes, Boulos or Marçal, might have decided at the last minute,” says Chicarino.

“But considering the latest polls, that’s what I expected. It was expected that it would be very tight, something quite unusual in the city of São Paulo, this has never happened before. We’ve had election campaigns where, in the second round, there were two candidates with a percentage of votes very close to each other, very close, a difficult election, but like this, with three candidates, we’ve never seen it.”

Now, with the campaign focused on two candidates, Chicarino comments that the tendency is for Nunes to take advantage of the power of the public apparatus, since he is the current mayor. Free political advertising time will resume on Friday (11).

“From the first to the second round, there’s very little time, so it’s very difficult for campaigns to work out a proposal. Considering the two candidates, what we’re going to see is Nunes trying to show a little of what his administration is all about, doing a lot more of what he’s already doing, trying to keep votes and expand them, because he has an advantage. And there’s a closeness that we can already see in the political stance of Marçal’s and Nunes’ voters. That doesn’t mean a transfer of votes, but there is ideological proximity,” she said.

Also on Sunday (6), the candidate who came fourth, Tabata Amaral (Brazilian Socialist Party) declared her support for Boulos. Marçal said he would support Nunes if the mayor committed to including some of his proposals in his government plan.

For Chicarino, given the many votes that Marçal got, possibly from voters who don’t want another Nunes administration, Boulos needs to be able to demonstrate he is the innovative candidate for the second round.

“Boulos needs to show he is a candidate for change. Nunes is a candidate for reelection, so he has the city apparatus with him, the institutionality is with him, be it the mayor, be it city councillors who have been reelected. In short, a base, a coalition that is also very large, very strong. But, on the other hand, if we add up the percentage of votes for Marçal and Boulos, this could represent that a large part of São Paulo’s electorate wants change. That is, they didn’t vote for Nunes, who is continuity, institutionality.”

“So, if Boulos’ campaign manages to capture some of this sentiment and put him forward as the political name capable of bringing about this change, perhaps we’ll have a more successful campaign on the side of the progressive camp, the left. In any case, [it’s] a difficult election, in which Nunes will certainly engage less in debates, etc. because when you are in advantage, that’s what tends to happen,” he continues.

The full analysis is available below (in Portuguese) in Central do Brasil, on Brasil de Fato’s YouTube channel.

And there’s more!

Victory for the “Centrão”

The Social Democratic Party won the most mayorships in the first round, with 878 elected mayors. The Brazilian Democratic Movement and Progressive Party are the second and third, respectively.

1st round

João Campos (Social Democratic Party), Eduardo Paes (Social Democratic Party) and 9 other candidates were elected in the first round. Most of them were reelected.

Conservative front

Brazilian right-wing and far-right parties perform better in the northern and center-western regions.

Central do Brasil is produced by Brasil de Fato. The program is broadcast live from Monday to Friday, always at 1 pm (local time), on Rede TVT and partner stations.