The final stretch on municipal elections 2024: what’s the scenario?

Brasil de Fato

The second and final round of municipal elections will take place on Sunday, October 27. Brazilians will decide who their next Mayor is in 15 capitals.     

In Belo Horizonte, the candidate that maintains the lead from the first round, Fuad Noman – who define himself as neither from the left or the right – has 52.4%, against 46.4% for Bruno Engler, supported by former far right President Jair Bolsonaro. Only 0.1% of voters say they are undecided, and 1.1% intend to vote blank or null.    

In Goiânia, leftist Sandro Mabel has 50.7% of the vote. Fred Rodrigues, also supported by Bolsonaro, has 46.6%. Undecided voters account for 1.1%, while 1.6% of voters say they intend to vote blank or annul their vote.      

According to the latest polls, right-winger Mayor Ricardo Nunes, running for re-election, has 51.7% of voting intentions for the second round in São Paulo. His rival, the left-wing candidate supported by President Lula (Workers’ Party) Guilherme Boulos, has 39.6%. Whites and nulls add up to 5.3%, and those who didn’t know or didn’t answer are 3.4%. The poll results show that the city’s blackout last week, leaving the population in darkness and causing chaos around São Paulo, had little impact on the voters. Even with current mayor Nunes avoiding debating with Boulos and canceling his attendance at events in the last couple of weeks before the voting day, the preference for him seems to be higher.   

In Porto Alegre, one of the cities hardest hit by the floods in May this year, the current Mayor, right winger Sebastião Melo 55.5% of the vote. Maria do Rosário, a candidate also supported by President Lula, has 41.3%. Blank and null votes reach 0.5%, and those who don’t know are at 2.7%. In Cuiabá, the latest poll shows right winger Abilio Brunini in the lead with 52.6%, followed by leftist Lúdio Cabral with 45.7%. The poll did not register undecided voters; only 1.7% declared a blank or null vote.    

Belém, which is preparing to host COP30 in 2025, has a big lead of 13.1% among its candidates in the second round. Centrist Igor Normando has 54.5% of voting intentions, while Éder Mauro, also supported by Bolsonaro, has 41.4%. Blank, null, and no votes add up to 3%. Those who didn’t know or didn’t answer the poll are 1.2%.     

In Natal, right winger Paulinho Freire leads with 54.4% of voting intentions, followed by leftist Natália Bonavides, who has 44.3%. The number of respondents who said they didn’t know who to vote for stood at 0.5%, while 0.7% declared a blank or null vote.    

Brazilians will return to vote for the second and final round of the 2024 municipal elections on October 27. Brasil de Fato will cover all the election events on Sunday.